31 de octubre de 2007

Diferencia significativa debido al azar


No te creas las estadísticas (4/10)

ER-z es un extraterrestre que estudia la carrera de Estadística en la Universidad Marciana. Su proyecto fin de carrera consiste en hacer un estudio acerca del color del pelo de la población sevillana. Para ello, la Universidad Marciana ha costeado a ER-z un viaje al planeta Tierra, a Sevilla, para tomar una muestra de población y así poder hacer su estudio.

-He hecho un descubrimiento sorprendente -comentó a la vuelta ER-z a su tutor. Tomé una muestra de cinco personas al azar, les hice esta foto y dio la casualidad de que los cinco eran pelirrojos. Esto me obliga a elaborar una teoría: si el color del pelo fuera igual en Sevilla que en el resto del mundo, sería una casualidad muy improbable haber obtenido un resultado como el mío, con tantos pelirrojos. Así pues, el resultado de mi estudio es que el porcentaje de pelirrojos de esta ciudad debe ser superior al del resto de ciudades terrestres.

¿Es correcto el razonamiento de ER-z?

Aunque nosotros sepamos que en Sevilla la proporción de pelirrojos no es superior al del resto del planeta, ER-z no se ha equivocado en ningún momento, tan sólo ha tenido mala suerte con la muestra que ha tomado de la población sevillana.

Cuando un estudio estadístico dice que una población (en nuestro caso Sevilla) es diferente de las demás cuando en realidad no lo es, se está cometiendo un error llamado error alfa, que es en el que ha caído ER-z.

Por definición, cometeremos un error alfa en el 5% de los estudios en los cuales no haya diferencias reales entre lo esperado y lo observado. Esto es muy fuerte: quiere decir que 1 de cada 20 muestras de sevillanos dirá que los colores de pelo de los sevillanos son diferentes al del resto de España cuando en realidad todos sabemos que no es así.

La parte de la Estadística que se dedica a generalizar los resultados de una muestra a una población general recibe el nombre de Inferencia. La ventaja de esta ciencia es que reconoce que el error alfa siempre estará presente y por tanto permite controlarlo a nuestro antojo, aunque nunca llegue a eliminarlo del todo. Es una ciencia que ha conseguido que el malo esté de nuestra parte.

86 firmas. Añade tú la tuya:

Giz dijo...

Ah, por eso es lo de que Sevilla tiene un color especial, ¿no? Que guay... cuando vaya por Sevilla no ire llamando la atención. Claro esta... siempre que no vaya poniendo mi cara de "ligar" que tanto te gusta XD.

No esperaré hasta el domingo.. de echo, eres muy listo para detectar corbatas de papel (que no era de papel) pero no detectas trozos de tartas que han sido devorados y suplantados por el gimp XD

Ains... rompecorazones dice el jodio. Ya me gustaria, pero que va... el unico que tiene el corazon roto... soy yo (momento victima patrocinado por caramelos Chimoos)

Porfaaa.. incluyelos en sifones junto a los chicles cheiwn y todas esas "chucherias" que comiamos :p

Giz dijo...

Por cierto (perdon por acaparar tu blog) Me encanta Clefairy (gracias ^_^). Si lo unes con el azar, ahí tienes el metrónomo, jejejeje.

Anónimo dijo...

emilio soy paco... claro que nos vemos esta tarde... hasta ahora... por cierto... chulo lo de la estadística

yassasin dijo...

Eres repelentemente rallante, como siempre...

¿Esta noche qué?

sl4ught3r dijo...

Si es que hay que tener en cuenta todo el espacio muestral antes de aventurarse a dar un resultado!

:P

Anónimo dijo...

Yo quise ser matemático. Bueno en realidad toda la vida quise ser lo que soy, pero en COU los dieces que sacaba en mates me hicieron pensar que quizás era una buena opción. Por suerte seguí mi auténtica vocación.

Todo esto viene porque no estoy del todo de acuerdo con lo que dices hoy, ninguna mentira pero sí alguna inexactitud. A veces sí soy gracioso, pero sólo a veces, y aunque tengo buen gusto para los pelucos el de la foto me lo regalaron. Lo que sí me parecen del todo acertados son tu opinión sobre el pijama y tu texto de hoy. Muy bueno.
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Antonio David dijo...

qué mono el chaval de pelo rojo que está a tu izquierda¡¡¡, ¿quien es?

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doctorfarandula dijo...

mi amiga pili y yo tenemos una teoria que postula que la gran mayoria d los pelirrojos son feos... ademas la melanina de los pelirrojos se llama feomelanina, todo encaja cual puzzle sideral!

mi barba es pelirroja, en ella abunda la feomelanina, no se pq en mi cabeza no, a lo mejor es pq en mi cabeza no abunda ni el pelo ��!

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Yo siempre he querido ser pelirroja. Pero de las auténticas. A vosotros os sienta muy bien...

Emilio, me van a aprobar la micro de 5º y la bioquímica de 6º estudiándome de nuevo la especificidad, la sensibilidad y todos sus amigos. Tú lo entiendes? Yo no. Pero no hay que entenderlo todo en esta vida, como muybien nos han enseñado seis años de carrera de progresivo desapego al razonamiento.

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Anónimo dijo...

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